9/16 FOMC Presents Problems
What will the Fed cut? Does each basis point mean something? Is the market over extending into FOMC? What's Up with Bitcoin?
There is so much coming into this FOMC, I would deem it the most hyped FOMC we have seen all year.
More coverage has been placed on this day in the past 4 days than at any point earlier in the year.
To be fair the Fed Reserve is under immense pressure to cut. Not just politically, but also from economic perspectives.
What is crazy is we have every John and Jane writing about how much they think the market will cut. We have letters from the Senate urging a 75bps cut!
Yet, no one seems to remember the Jerome Powell that we have known for the last 5 years. Jay is not jumpy. There’s a lot he could have done wrong, but thanks to his refusal to overreact we have avoided a lot of disasters along the way.
Today, we are going to have the deep discussion that you have been waiting for on what is the most probabilistic outcome for cutting rates. What we know historically about rate cuts, and what markets tend to look to buy following the first rate cut.
Stick with the ole wiz, and I’ll guide you through what will undoubtedly be one of the toughest weeks of the year for markets.
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